'Always the same it's just a shame that's all'
good times are not coming. not soon. the administration and our government are incompetent or viciously corrupt - probably some combination. we have little to show for the fed loan support and direct taxpayer infusions. less than a year ago the federal stress tests pondered a worst case single digit unemployment scenario, just to ask 'what if'?
things have deteriorated from a very bad point one year ago. speaking about jobs is exactly that. so called stimulus has been terribly inefficient. the current regime seem obsessed with mediocrity and incrementalism, but at massive scale. here are some reasons why i am pessimistic.
1. interest rates. you can only go to the well so many times as the saying goes. interest rates will rise substantially in 2010. as the deficit expands beyond reason the cost of borrowing money will surely rise. repurposing the tarp surplus for more 'stimulus', escalating wars, expansive healthcare spending, oh my. there is much more of course, cutting back on spending/borrowing is not a serious possibility.
2. jobs. the domestic job market is a disaster. the november #s are a seasonal glitch and result of people falling off the rolls. real unemployment is of course well above ten percent. the number of people moving into >six months 'unemployed' increased 200k that month as opposed to the overall # which excludes people no longer eligible for benefits. the bright spots are manufacturing/exports/multinational which benefit from weak usd. usd will strengthen based on #1.
3. housing. low income, fundamental overvaluation, and credit conditions will put negative pressure on home prices. as well the federal inability to spend additional taxpayer/creditor money to subsidize home sales. banks will take a beating, and who knows how the government will choose and/or be allowed to respond.
all these amount to worsening conditions for average consumer who previously drove the economy. reality is getting closer though oddly distant still. my plan: just sit back and watch it roll in.
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"i'm sick of that fake thug R&B rap scenario"
ReplyDeletenice to see you back hatty :)
you can be next in line, and signed, and still be writing rhymes and broke.
i think you are free to sit and watch it roll in since you *are* employed. heh. i've wondered also where the unemployment numbers come from, since it does not count those who are part timers looking for full time work, and does not count those who were fired with cause, right?
and what aboot those of us that (gulp) quit :p
isn't there some new work opening up to fix the failed civ eng project that is the bay bridge?
well said. the govt has indeed produced a fake ass scenario: bankers have record profit + bonus while my taxpayers and future generations disrespected.
ReplyDeletei have the good fortune of income, but mentally preparing for continuing near/medium term deterioration along the lines i mentioned. there is no way to escape this - a falling tide lowers all boats.
the circus in washington seems hell bent on solving the wrong problems, and ineffectively at that. it would be better if they did nothing at all.
oh well we just spend our way out of debt. badda bing badda boom, right mr pres? at least we got that peace prize; at least we did that...
the bay bridge is a great example of public govt impotence: 20 years after the quake we have little more than a hill of beans to show. it is hard to track the costs of the non progress, but i would guess several hundred million to a billion spent so far. one thing is certain though: the bridge will have bike lanes!
i would not count on any govt related progress before mid term elections and likely beyond. instead, train yourself to snatch pistols out of holsters...
more detailed and broader unemployment stats are here: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm
Earth to boring guy. Jobs are passe. Our government is too brave to consider the consequences of this "policy" of accelerating levels of unsustainable public debt. Good on them. For one thing, this binge is nothing like the accelerating level of publicly encouraged private debt that caused the present financial crisis. More importantly: the earth seems, (lately, but not TOO lately) be getting warmer, perhaps in part because of human activity. It is essential that all political activity be directed at finding economically costly and centralized-power-enhancing possible solutions to this issue. On this front, things are brighter.
ReplyDeleteum, paul krugman. work is for wankers.
ReplyDeletejosh, global warming is a liberal conspiracy.
ReplyDeletequote: worsening conditions for average consumer who previously drove the economy.
ReplyDeleteplease define, the 'average consumer.' fiscally irresponsible americans with easy access to credit?
i recently saw a kmart commercial advertising layaway programs. when was the last time you saw that? the eighties? talk about a credit crunch.
IMO Apple-
ReplyDeleteThe much-remarked-upon division of US politics between 'liberals' and 'conservatives' is a sham. The only real usefulness of this false dichotomy is to serve as a distraction for both parties' useful idiots, a/k/a voters.
Their support (somewhat) masks the fact that our country is governed to benefit the narrow interests of a small minority, often in ways that are nakedly obvious and grossly unpopular (e.g. TARP). Along with a supine media, these supporters provide a fig leaf of legitimacy to the purchase of policy by various "donors," from UAW to the famed Military-Industrial Complex.
josh. imo. lol. rofl. wtf. yay! princeton!
ReplyDelete